How did this happen?

Back in 2004, the Democratic party was transfixed by a former governor of Vermont, Howard Dean. He generated a ton of excitement in the Presidential primaries. Here was a guy who was challenging Bush aggressively, particularly on the Iraq war. He was calling for healthcare reform, middle class tax cuts and fiscal responsibility. His speeches were rousing and he captured the support of the youth and the bloggers. In fact, he defined how to raise money through the internet. (sound familiar?) He was the clear favorite to win the nomination. But then, he went down in Iowa after a lot of negative attacks. And in his victory speech, he made that fateful scream. And that was all she wrote...Dean was now seen as a lunatic. In politics, if you have one bad soundbite, the curtain closes.

Here's what he did next. He put those bloggers to work and asked them to make him the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. Dean had a simple idea. Why were Democrats not even trying to compete in red states? Why weren't they succeeding among the poor and middle-class voters who, in theory, would benefit more from a Democratic government? He planned a new offensive...called the 50 state strategy. The idea was simple...if Democrats wanted to rule the national government, they would have to be a national party, and not just the party of the east and west coast. They'd go into each and every state and fight for their candidates.

Well, it worked. 2006 saw the Dems take back Congress. They won seats in red areas like Montana, Missouri and Virginia. Now, in 2008, look at all of the red states that all of the sudden are looking pink, or in some cases, blue. Colorado. Georgia. North Carolina. Virginia. Ohio. Indiana. And the list goes on. I suggest to you that the Democratic gains this year are not just because of Bush-fatigue, but also because of Dean's strategy.

And look at the Democratic candidate. He's basically the happy, eloquent version of Howard Dean. Will Obama suffer the same fate as Dean? Will the youth actually show up to the polls on Tuesday? I think this may be the time. Either way, I think Dean can be seen as what all of us political junkies need to be reminded of. No matter your views, you have to get out there and fight for them.

What a difference four years can make in a political party.

Thoughts on the Race :)

Well, its looking more and more like our next President will be Barack Obama. He's ahead in the polls, and electorally, he has many more options to get to 270 than McCain. In a way, I think this is a good thing. The optimist in me says that there must be some substance to Obama's rhetoric of hope.

Here, though, are my concerns:

1.) I do have reservations about Obama's experience, particularly in foreign affairs. In a way, I see him as analagous to JFK. Both are young, eloquent and inspiring. However, think back to the first few years of the JFK Presidency. People did test him. Khruschev ate him for lunch at Vienna. The Bay of Pigs was a disaster. I would hope that Obama doesn't suffer the same mistakes. I am comforted by the idea of Biden being there with him.

2.) I also have concerns about a liberal majority in the three branches. Divided government appeals to me. I can't see the Democrats not picking up seats in this election. The positive side of that is that Congress will actually do something. Hopefully, the solution wont be worse than the problem.

So, those are a couple of my concerns about an Obama win. Fear not, I have significant concerns about a McCain victory too, but I'll save those for a later post.

Race in the election?

This is so good I smell a homework assignment! What do you think...what impact will race have on the race?

To me, it seems like we always think we're somehow "past" racism, and then some event shows us that we clearly are not. I also think I have a sheltered and privaleged perspective on the issue. In my area, race is not nearly the issue that it would be in the South or the Midwest.

I will say this though. Obama is now up 6-7% nationally. If that is still projected on election day, and he somehow loses the election, we are going to have serious serious problems. I think there might indeed be a cultural explosion in the vain of the 60s riots. Lets all hope that no matter who wins, we remain peaceful.

Bad Economy = Attack Politics

Well, so much for the economic rescue/bailout/socialism. It doesn't seem to have helped much! The DOW fell almost another 700 points today, and is under 9000. This is the lowest it has been in 5 years! One year ago, it was at 14000. This is just awful, particularly for the baby boomers. So many of them are reaching retirement age, looking forward to not clocking in at the 9 to 5 and spending time pursuing hobbies, spoiling grandchildren, asking their doctor about _________ or doing whatever it is exactly that retirees do. Not anymore! I don't know how anyone could feel comfortable retiring with the market like this.

All of this really hurts McCain. Is it his fault? Perhaps, in a way. I do think that Reagonomics just hasn't worked for most Americans. Nor has deregulation. He has espoused support for both concepts throughout his time in Washington. As I said a few weeks ago, I think his statement that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" will later be seen as the turning point of this election.

So what does he do? He starts hitting Obama on the cultural issues. He's doing things like having surrogates refer to him as Barack Hussein Obama. (think, when's the last time you heard someone refer to McCain as John Sidney McCain?) Or having Palin trying to claim that he associates with terrorists. Both of these are designed to reinforce the stereotype of him as a "secret Muslim." These attacks play to such sad American xenophobic sentiment. It truly is shameful, yet effective. It saddens me that politicains stoop to these things. Sadder though, is that these things work. I wish they would focus on the economy, but the political scientist in me knows that won't happen.

Since I began following politics in high school, I have respected McCain. Yes, he did buck political trends regularly. Yes, he did write bold legislation. Yes, I thought he was ethical. The most telling thing for me is that he did not raise the Bill Ayers issue in the debate. To me, that suggests that he knows it is bs and couldn't say it to Obama's face.

Second Debate Thoughts

I had the pleasure of sitting down to watch the town hall debate with my sister on Tuesday. We both found ourselves talking back to the tv at various points. Here are a collection of our thoughts:

-McCain needed to really hit a homerun with this debate. With the poll numbers dropping and the electoral map taking a hard left, he needed drama, attention and oomph tonight. Neither of us saw that. Frankly, we found the entire debate rather uneventful.
-Obama looked considerably more relaxed than McCain. Sadly, McCain often appears tense because of the limited body movements he can do as a result of his time as a POW.
-Neither of us cared for the format. Lets go back to old school Lincoln - Douglas!
-Both candidates had fairly poor answers on the economic crisis. Neither of them gave meaningful ideas on how to address this. It seems as if Washington is doing one collective shrug of the shoulders.
-McCain's attempts at jokes were just not effective. Why try a joke when the audience has been told they cannot respond? And why was he meandering around the stage when Obama was speaking?

Overall, I'd give this one to Obama, simply because McCain failed to change the game.

More bad news for McCain. RCP is now projecting Virginia as leaning left, and West Virginia is now a toss up. According to their map, Obama wins.

Thoughts on the VP Debate and the Race

Let's start with the VP debate. I was really looking forward to this one. Lets face it. If Palin had done poorly, that very well could have been the kiss of death to McCain's campaign. They both had a number of horrible news cycles. McCain seems very strange and erratic to me with his posturing on the bailout bill. I though the Couric interview was a disaster for Palin. She was asked to name what magazines and newspapers she read, to which she replied "All of them." She was asked to name a Supreme Court case she disagreed with other than Roe v. Wade, and couldn't. Dred Scott Anyone? Plessy vs. Ferguson? So, suffice it to say, she needed a good night.

I thought Palin redeemed herself on Thursday night. She was charming, well-spoken and sounded somewhat coherent. On the surface, I thought there was more warmth and likability with her than Biden. In fact, at first I thought she may have won the debate. Then, I thought about substance and strategy. Palin dodged so many questions and bungled some responses to others. I don't think she has her facts and names straight. Biden, conversely, can talk about anything at anytime and tell you where he stands. I thought he was very effective in bringing up McCain's prior votes to defend his points. Yet, style wise, he is a little boring. So, who wins? I'm going with Biden. He was much more substantive on the issues and didn't wink at me!

Also, big news electorally. Obama seems to be pulling ahead on the map. McCain is no longer contesting Michigan. The key states now are Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana and Florida. Notice what they all have in common? They all went red in 2004. McCain needs to hold all of them. Obama will win if he takes one of them. Obama is now up by about 6 points in national polls.

What should McCain do to get back on track? Go Negative?

Will Obama's lead hold?

Who do you think won the debate?

Tell me~!

Bailout Bill

Wow...there was enough political chicanery going on this week to leave any political junkie totally satiated.

I have very mixed feelings about this bailout package. Let's start with the wording. This was a total media failure by the President. By sitting on the sidelines for way way way too long, he let the media define this as a bailout. If you want something passed, you have to prime the media. He started calling it a rescue, but it was too late.

I admire the House Republicans for defeating the plan. They stood up to both their President and their candidate. And honestly, maybe they did the right thing. Sure, the market tanked the next day. Nonetheless, they held to their principles and wouldn't be pressured. What I found totally laughable, though, was that they blamed Nancy Pelosi's speech for the defeat of the bill. Yeah, c'mon guys. You voted against a bill that would "save" the economy because Nancy Pelosi hurt your feelings? I don't think so. Even sillier was when the Democrats held a press conference congratulating their efforts on the failed bill. Uh, it failed! No congratulations! The Daily Show had an excellent presentation on this.

I also enjoyed this clever article on RCP on the political implications on this.

Debate!!!

One down, three to go! So i watched the first debate yesterday. I was struck by a number of things. Have patience...I'll get to them in a sec! Overall, I honestly thought it was a little lackluster. I think neither candidate really scored some any knockout blows. There were few memorable soundbite lines. Let's break it down.

This was a very substance filled debate. The two mostly kept towards the issues, and there was little theatric content to buzz about. In that sense, I think it is a victory for the American voter. If you wanted to know where these guys stand, I think people got some insight last night. However, I would have liked to see more definite answers from both of them on whether or not they will support the economic bailout package.

Zach made a good point this week. Indeed, politics is about image these days. Image wise, who scored points? Well, I think Obama's goal for the night was to "look" Presidential. The guy is fairly inexperienced, so he needed to suggest that he could handle the job. I think he did that. McCain challenged him on foreign policy, and Obama held his own. One of the strongest moments was when he challenged McCain on Iraq. Downside- Obama could be crisper and more soundbite friendly with his answers. McCain, I thought, was a bit condescending at times. He needs to shed the grouchy old man stereotype. He tried, particularly with some self-deprecating jokes about being old, but they fell pretty flat. Check out the focus group video from Fox News.

Next up...Biden v. Palin. This one could be a bloodbath. The stakes are high for Palin, especially after the interview with Couric last week, which I thought, was frankly frightening.

A long overdue UPDATE!

Wow, my apologies for going so long without an update. It has been a crazy week! I've been up to my eyeballs with things to do and places to be. And, you know, if a student said that to me, I would probably raise my eyebrow and give them a curt look as if to say, "So What!"

So here goes. I think this week clearly went to Obama. The entire finanical community is in sheer turmoil. Lehman, AIG, Merrill Lynch, WaMu...all having serious problems. And, in the words of Bill Maher, "If you thought that was bad, now President Bush is on the case." One thing that struck me was the total lack of the President during the first few days of this insanity. Where was he? I mean, seriously. The market is in freefall and he is silent. It was like Katrina all over again, but for the rich. Given that unregulated market greed basically caused this, I think Obama has the advantage. Plus, McCain shot himself in the foot by declaring "The fundamentals of our economy are strong." And then backpedaling. Then, he declared that we shouldn't bailout AIG. And when we did that, suddenly it was a good idea.

What I don't understand is why Obama isn't riding this to victory. Common political theory would say that he should make an ad out of McCain saying "fundamentals of the economy are strong" and play it a zillion times in battleground states. I don't see why he hasn't done that. Maybe he thinks he doesn't need to and is saving that for later. Who knows?

And isn't it ironic that Conservatives are so quick to praise this HUGE economic bailout of banks? I mean, are we living in a socialized economy now? And who would've thought Bush would champion such an idea?

Anyways, I'm going back to the real world to read some student blogs. Laters!

Bryant Trial Begins Monday

In what is becoming a sad trend in NJ politics, yet another politician will go on trial next week on charges of corruption. This time it is Wayne Bryant, a former Democratic State Senator out of Camden county. He is accused of shameful things. If found guilty, I hope that the judge throws the book at him.

In another example, former Newark Mayor and Democratic State Senator Sharpe James reports to prison on Monday. In my opinion, he is lucky. I have never cared for him as a politician. A fine example of his antics can be found in the documentary Streetfight, which chronicles his primary battle with Cory Booker.

These corrupt officials have seriously wounded the Democratic brand in NJ. Along with Governor Corzine's woes, it could be a sign that Republicans may have a stronger election cycle than expected. In many ways, this is said. There are some excellent Democratic politicians in NJ (along with many Republicans as well). Sadly, though, many voters will associate them with the persons in their respective parties who disgrace their offices.

Winner of the Week: McCain

I'd say that McCain has clearly won this week on several fronts:

Most national polls are showing that McCain received a significant post-convention bounce. RCP has him up about 3 points nationally. It seems that his base is enthusiastic and suddenly optimistic about his chances. Palin has certainly made the GOP happy.

He has also been effective this week because Obama has been ineffective. It seems to me that he is really in a quandry. Palin has stumped him. She is popular, photogenic and attractive to many independent voters. However, if Obama attacks her, he is vulnerable to claims that he is sexist. Moreover, engaging in any discussion of Palin validates her prominence as a candidate.

I think it is only a matter of time before the lustre of Palin fades. Howard Kurtz notes that the media is already losing patience with her. As I've watched her speeches, it has become clear to me that she is simply recycling the lines of her acceptance speech. What will happen when she has to go off of her script. It is anybody's guess. Maureen Dowd chronicles the Palin insanity this week here, with her ever so sharp liberal pen.

Class Update :)

Well, we're a week or so into the Poli Sci classes, and things are going really well! The students are excited and engaged. I must say that it is really refreshing as a teacher to walk into class everyday to enthusiastic students who are absolutely eager to discuss what is going on. Needless to say, I'm feeling very good about the classes.

I am really pumped about the blogs. Students are beginning to write their blogs and you can really sense the passion in their writings. The idea of the blogs is basic...to extend class discussions beyond the 40 minutes of class. It is great to see them thinking, writing and engaging with each other to discuss the issues. As a teacher, I am beginning to see the value of blogs as an educational tool. My brain is churning as to how to use them further in other classes.

In election news, it looks like McCain has gotten a nice post-convention bounce. I think its too early to tell if it is real or not. As many have noted, his campaign in now really reaching the Conservative base with the choice of Palin. She is turning into quite the rockstar! The Republicans are enthusiastic about her. I think much of the jump we're seeing in McCain's numbers is a reflection of that enthusiasm.

However, what we all need to remember is the electoral college. That's how they win my friends. National polls don't help us understand the electoral college. Most hypothetical maps still show Obama with an advantage in the electoral count.

There's a great summary of this here.

Visit Byron's Blog

Check out Byron's blog.

Go visit Kristi's Blog

I really enjoyed Kristi's blog this week. Check it out.

Palin's Speech

Wow, I have to say, I had some serious doubts about Palin. In reality, I still do. But she gave one heck of a speech last night at the RNC. She was confident, funny and poised. The speech had some great applause lines and was well-written. I found the jabs at Obama to be particularly effective. The line about the responsibilities of a mayor as opposed to a "community organizer" were particularly well-done.

It also seems to me that she has stumbled the Democrats. I didn't notice much of a response from the Democratic Party. Palin also did a nice job of attacking the media, which in my opinion, hasn't really been unfair to her. The claim is that the media has attacked her and her family as well unfairly. I don't really buy that. In my view, if you mention that your son will be deployed to Iraq on 9/11 in your speeches, you are making your family an issue.

In other news, a big shout out to an old high school friend, Sara Benincasa. Sara is a delightful young lady, and she is becoming quite the web sensation with her imitations of Palin. Her youtube videos have generated a lot of buzz, so much so that she has landed on the webpage of Newsweek. Congrats Sara! I wish you all the best.

Palin

Wow. Who saw this one coming? I still am a bit shocked that McCain picked Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska, as his VP choice. I mean, wow. I was thinking Romney, maybe Lieberman if he wanted to shake things up.

I'll put it right on the table. I think this was a very dangerous pick for McCain. Why?

1.) The argument could certainly be made that she doesn't have the experience to be VP. She has been governor for 2 years, and before that she was the mayor of a town of less than 10,000 people. Not exactly Presidential chops there.

2.) It is also clear that McCain was really trying to solidify the social conservative base. They have never been thrilled with McCain. So, picking someone like Palin, who is pro-life, religious, and in favor of teaching creationism with evolution does a lot to help lure those voters in. However, I'm not sure I'm sold on her pulling in Hillary voters. There's a good column on that here . However, will the bubble burst know that we know her 17 year old daughter is pregnant? I don't see that sitting well with the values voters.

Yet, the choice could also be brilliant. She is an outsider. People loathe Washington D.C. right now. Bush is hovering around 30% approval. Congress, believe it or not, gets about half that. Not being a Washington politician could be an asset. Palin could also point out how she stood up to the ever so corrupt Ted Stevens. Second, the conservatives love her. McCain is getting a lot of money and excitement out of her. Could be just what he needs to get back some excitement into his campaign.

DNC

Well, the Democratic National Convention is over. Here are my thoughts:

1.) Michelle Obama was excellent. She spoke well, and her speech was stylized enough to really make her seem approachable. I could see people really "getting to know her." I think she nicely fixed her image issues.
2.) I thought Joe Biden did an okay job. His speech was well-written, but his delivery was a bit off.
3.) I think Barack gave a fantastic speech. Was it well written? Absolutely. Was it delivered well? Absolutely. Will we be talking about it 20 years from now? Eh, my gut tells me no. To me, it was well done, but not as remarkable as the hype made it out to be. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think it was mindblowing. And, in a way, I think that is a good thing for the Obama fans. Seeing as how the speech was given on the anniversary of the MLK "I Have a Dream" speech, Obama would have to be incredibly arrogant to try to replicate such a beautiful, meaningful address. I think he was better off going with a purely political address, rather than something prophetic.

Overall, I'd give the Democrats a C+ or a B-. There were some good speeches, and certainly some great applause lines. However, I don't think they did enough damage on McCain. They really need to take the gloves off and do some damage if they want to win. In that sense, I thought one of the better speeches of the convention was that of 2004 candidate John Kerry.

Ethical Dilemma #1

Everyone has a viewpoint. Everyone. On everything. We all have values, beliefs, biases. You name it, we've got it. They shape the way that we see the world, interpret current events and most importantly, they determine how we interact with each other. But, should a teacher disclose his or her values to their students?

Here's the issue. In teaching Social Studies, there's a lot of controversy. Should we have dropped the Atomic Bomb? Was Roe v. Wade a good decision? Does Reaganomics work? Is George Bush a bad president? In the past, I've tried to always keep a certain neutrality in my teaching. The educational theory goes like this...you should never disclose your views to your students, for it will shape how they view the issue. You might have students try to get a good grade by adopting your opinion. Or, you might have a student accuse you of harshly grading them because they disagreed with your views. I see those points, but I have my doubts.

Would it be better to disclose my views and biases to my students? I mean, listen, I'm a pretty political person. I'm seriously addicted to the news. If I could mainline The Drudgereport, I probably would. Don't my students have a right to know where I stand? Should they know that because I'm a liberal / moderate / conservative, I see things a certain way? At least then, they could say, "well, he's a typical ________, so forget what he said!"

Your thoughts?

First Post!

I am so excited that I'll have the opportunity to teach Political Science this year! I have only been teaching high school for a few years, but writing and teaching this class has always been one of my goals. As of right now, I have about 50 kids signed up. Its a great feeling to have the course go through with not just one, but two sections. I just hope that I can deliver a rewarding, challenging course for them.

In writing this course, I've tried to model it after a Political Science class that I had in high school. See...I had this great teacher, Maureen Startzel. Man, she was just amazing! I have never met someone so energetic, enthusiastic and dedicated. The way that she conducted that class really changed me as person. Not only did we learn the civics, but we learned to form our own opinions and engage in the political process. We met every politician possible...from the mayor to the sheriff to our Congressmen. It was great...here we were in high school having policy discussions with really important people. Words can't do justice to how great that class was, and to what a great teacher she was.

So, I've spent my entire summer trying to make this class really special. I took some courses at nearby Rutgers University to brush up on my background knowledge. I reached out to some other teachers, including Mrs. Startzel. And, I've invited everyone that I can imagine to come speak to my students. So far, we have a great group of guest speakers from the mayor, to State Senators, to Congressmen to Political Scientists from Rutgers. We'll see who I can get!