How did this happen?

Back in 2004, the Democratic party was transfixed by a former governor of Vermont, Howard Dean. He generated a ton of excitement in the Presidential primaries. Here was a guy who was challenging Bush aggressively, particularly on the Iraq war. He was calling for healthcare reform, middle class tax cuts and fiscal responsibility. His speeches were rousing and he captured the support of the youth and the bloggers. In fact, he defined how to raise money through the internet. (sound familiar?) He was the clear favorite to win the nomination. But then, he went down in Iowa after a lot of negative attacks. And in his victory speech, he made that fateful scream. And that was all she wrote...Dean was now seen as a lunatic. In politics, if you have one bad soundbite, the curtain closes.

Here's what he did next. He put those bloggers to work and asked them to make him the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. Dean had a simple idea. Why were Democrats not even trying to compete in red states? Why weren't they succeeding among the poor and middle-class voters who, in theory, would benefit more from a Democratic government? He planned a new offensive...called the 50 state strategy. The idea was simple...if Democrats wanted to rule the national government, they would have to be a national party, and not just the party of the east and west coast. They'd go into each and every state and fight for their candidates.

Well, it worked. 2006 saw the Dems take back Congress. They won seats in red areas like Montana, Missouri and Virginia. Now, in 2008, look at all of the red states that all of the sudden are looking pink, or in some cases, blue. Colorado. Georgia. North Carolina. Virginia. Ohio. Indiana. And the list goes on. I suggest to you that the Democratic gains this year are not just because of Bush-fatigue, but also because of Dean's strategy.

And look at the Democratic candidate. He's basically the happy, eloquent version of Howard Dean. Will Obama suffer the same fate as Dean? Will the youth actually show up to the polls on Tuesday? I think this may be the time. Either way, I think Dean can be seen as what all of us political junkies need to be reminded of. No matter your views, you have to get out there and fight for them.

What a difference four years can make in a political party.

Thoughts on the Race :)

Well, its looking more and more like our next President will be Barack Obama. He's ahead in the polls, and electorally, he has many more options to get to 270 than McCain. In a way, I think this is a good thing. The optimist in me says that there must be some substance to Obama's rhetoric of hope.

Here, though, are my concerns:

1.) I do have reservations about Obama's experience, particularly in foreign affairs. In a way, I see him as analagous to JFK. Both are young, eloquent and inspiring. However, think back to the first few years of the JFK Presidency. People did test him. Khruschev ate him for lunch at Vienna. The Bay of Pigs was a disaster. I would hope that Obama doesn't suffer the same mistakes. I am comforted by the idea of Biden being there with him.

2.) I also have concerns about a liberal majority in the three branches. Divided government appeals to me. I can't see the Democrats not picking up seats in this election. The positive side of that is that Congress will actually do something. Hopefully, the solution wont be worse than the problem.

So, those are a couple of my concerns about an Obama win. Fear not, I have significant concerns about a McCain victory too, but I'll save those for a later post.

Race in the election?

This is so good I smell a homework assignment! What do you think...what impact will race have on the race?

To me, it seems like we always think we're somehow "past" racism, and then some event shows us that we clearly are not. I also think I have a sheltered and privaleged perspective on the issue. In my area, race is not nearly the issue that it would be in the South or the Midwest.

I will say this though. Obama is now up 6-7% nationally. If that is still projected on election day, and he somehow loses the election, we are going to have serious serious problems. I think there might indeed be a cultural explosion in the vain of the 60s riots. Lets all hope that no matter who wins, we remain peaceful.

Bad Economy = Attack Politics

Well, so much for the economic rescue/bailout/socialism. It doesn't seem to have helped much! The DOW fell almost another 700 points today, and is under 9000. This is the lowest it has been in 5 years! One year ago, it was at 14000. This is just awful, particularly for the baby boomers. So many of them are reaching retirement age, looking forward to not clocking in at the 9 to 5 and spending time pursuing hobbies, spoiling grandchildren, asking their doctor about _________ or doing whatever it is exactly that retirees do. Not anymore! I don't know how anyone could feel comfortable retiring with the market like this.

All of this really hurts McCain. Is it his fault? Perhaps, in a way. I do think that Reagonomics just hasn't worked for most Americans. Nor has deregulation. He has espoused support for both concepts throughout his time in Washington. As I said a few weeks ago, I think his statement that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong" will later be seen as the turning point of this election.

So what does he do? He starts hitting Obama on the cultural issues. He's doing things like having surrogates refer to him as Barack Hussein Obama. (think, when's the last time you heard someone refer to McCain as John Sidney McCain?) Or having Palin trying to claim that he associates with terrorists. Both of these are designed to reinforce the stereotype of him as a "secret Muslim." These attacks play to such sad American xenophobic sentiment. It truly is shameful, yet effective. It saddens me that politicains stoop to these things. Sadder though, is that these things work. I wish they would focus on the economy, but the political scientist in me knows that won't happen.

Since I began following politics in high school, I have respected McCain. Yes, he did buck political trends regularly. Yes, he did write bold legislation. Yes, I thought he was ethical. The most telling thing for me is that he did not raise the Bill Ayers issue in the debate. To me, that suggests that he knows it is bs and couldn't say it to Obama's face.

Second Debate Thoughts

I had the pleasure of sitting down to watch the town hall debate with my sister on Tuesday. We both found ourselves talking back to the tv at various points. Here are a collection of our thoughts:

-McCain needed to really hit a homerun with this debate. With the poll numbers dropping and the electoral map taking a hard left, he needed drama, attention and oomph tonight. Neither of us saw that. Frankly, we found the entire debate rather uneventful.
-Obama looked considerably more relaxed than McCain. Sadly, McCain often appears tense because of the limited body movements he can do as a result of his time as a POW.
-Neither of us cared for the format. Lets go back to old school Lincoln - Douglas!
-Both candidates had fairly poor answers on the economic crisis. Neither of them gave meaningful ideas on how to address this. It seems as if Washington is doing one collective shrug of the shoulders.
-McCain's attempts at jokes were just not effective. Why try a joke when the audience has been told they cannot respond? And why was he meandering around the stage when Obama was speaking?

Overall, I'd give this one to Obama, simply because McCain failed to change the game.

More bad news for McCain. RCP is now projecting Virginia as leaning left, and West Virginia is now a toss up. According to their map, Obama wins.

Thoughts on the VP Debate and the Race

Let's start with the VP debate. I was really looking forward to this one. Lets face it. If Palin had done poorly, that very well could have been the kiss of death to McCain's campaign. They both had a number of horrible news cycles. McCain seems very strange and erratic to me with his posturing on the bailout bill. I though the Couric interview was a disaster for Palin. She was asked to name what magazines and newspapers she read, to which she replied "All of them." She was asked to name a Supreme Court case she disagreed with other than Roe v. Wade, and couldn't. Dred Scott Anyone? Plessy vs. Ferguson? So, suffice it to say, she needed a good night.

I thought Palin redeemed herself on Thursday night. She was charming, well-spoken and sounded somewhat coherent. On the surface, I thought there was more warmth and likability with her than Biden. In fact, at first I thought she may have won the debate. Then, I thought about substance and strategy. Palin dodged so many questions and bungled some responses to others. I don't think she has her facts and names straight. Biden, conversely, can talk about anything at anytime and tell you where he stands. I thought he was very effective in bringing up McCain's prior votes to defend his points. Yet, style wise, he is a little boring. So, who wins? I'm going with Biden. He was much more substantive on the issues and didn't wink at me!

Also, big news electorally. Obama seems to be pulling ahead on the map. McCain is no longer contesting Michigan. The key states now are Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana and Florida. Notice what they all have in common? They all went red in 2004. McCain needs to hold all of them. Obama will win if he takes one of them. Obama is now up by about 6 points in national polls.

What should McCain do to get back on track? Go Negative?

Will Obama's lead hold?

Who do you think won the debate?

Tell me~!

Bailout Bill

Wow...there was enough political chicanery going on this week to leave any political junkie totally satiated.

I have very mixed feelings about this bailout package. Let's start with the wording. This was a total media failure by the President. By sitting on the sidelines for way way way too long, he let the media define this as a bailout. If you want something passed, you have to prime the media. He started calling it a rescue, but it was too late.

I admire the House Republicans for defeating the plan. They stood up to both their President and their candidate. And honestly, maybe they did the right thing. Sure, the market tanked the next day. Nonetheless, they held to their principles and wouldn't be pressured. What I found totally laughable, though, was that they blamed Nancy Pelosi's speech for the defeat of the bill. Yeah, c'mon guys. You voted against a bill that would "save" the economy because Nancy Pelosi hurt your feelings? I don't think so. Even sillier was when the Democrats held a press conference congratulating their efforts on the failed bill. Uh, it failed! No congratulations! The Daily Show had an excellent presentation on this.

I also enjoyed this clever article on RCP on the political implications on this.